Hotel Occupancy, Hotel Supply Growth, Airbnb Expansion & Air Capacity Trends (2020–2028)
- Silvia Ferrer
- Jan 13
- 3 min read
The evolution of Cancún and the Riviera Maya over the past decade offers one of the clearest case studies of how a global leisure destination moves from crisis to maturity.
While headline occupancy figures remain strong, the real story lies beneath the surface—at the intersection of hotel room growth, Airbnb expansion, and air capacity trends from the U.S. and Canada.
Between 2020 and 2028, Cancún transitions from volatility to equilibrium, forcing hotel owners and operators to rethink what success truly means.
Why Growth Rates Matter More Than Volume
In emerging destinations, volume growth drives performance.In mature destinations, growth velocity determines profitability. Cancún today is not constrained by demand—it is constrained by how efficiently demand is absorbed across an expanding supply base.
Supply, Demand & Growth Dynamics (2020–2028))
Hotel Rooms, Airbnb, Air Capacity & Occupancy
Including Year-over-Year Growth / Decline
Year | Hotel Rooms | Hotel YoY | Airbnb Units | Airbnb YoY | Tourists | Tourists YoY | USA+CAN Air Pax (M) | Air YoY | Avg. Occupancy |
2020 | 114,789 | 7.20% | 72,000 | — | 8,830,917 | 427.10% | 6.1 | — | 36.00% |
2021 | 118,772 | 3.47% | 80,500 | 11.80% | 13,530,307 | 53.22% | 11.4 | 86.90% | 61.50% |
2022 | 127,399 | 7.26% | 89,200 | 10.80% | 19,680,330 | 45.45% | 15.8 | 38.60% | 74.20% |
2023 | 130,123 | 2.14% | 94,600 | 6.10% | 21,084,629 | 7.14% | 16.9 | 7.00% | 77.10% |
2024 | 137,500 | 5.67% | 96,800 | 2.30% | 21,548,491 | 2.20% | 17.2 | 1.80% | 76.50% |
2025 | 138,200 | 0.51% | 103,500 | 6.90% | 20,298,678 | -5.80% | 16.3 | -5.20% | 74.00% |
2026 (E) | 142,500 | 3.11% | 109,000 | 5.30% | 20,785,847 | 2.40% | 16.6 | 1.80% | 75.20% |
2027 (E) | 146,300 | 2.67% | 113,500 | 4.10% | 21,284,707 | 2.40% | 16.9 | 1.80% | 75.80% |
2028 (E) | 149,800 | 2.39% | 118,000 | 4.00% | 21,901,963 | 2.90% | 17.3 | 2.40% | 76.30% |
The figures below are representative indicators for analysis. If you are looking to get exact figures please refer to:
Hotel room SEDETUR
Airbnb figures AIRDNA
Hotel Room Growth: Controlled, But Relentless
What the Data Shows
Hotel supply grows consistently every year
Average long-term growth: ~2.5–3.0% annually the new norm, before 7% average
No structural decline in hotel inventory—even during demand normalization
Interpretation
Hotel growth in Cancún is disciplined, not speculative—but it compounds over time, permanently raising the breakeven bar for performance.
This means:
Occupancy alone can no longer compensate for poor pricing
Revenue strategy must mature alongside supply
Airbnb Growth: Faster Than Hotels, Slowing Over Time
Airbnb Growth Pattern
Post-COVID expansion exceeded 10% annually
Growth decelerates after 2023
Stabilizes around 4–5% annually by 2026–2028
Strategic Reality
Airbnb continues to grow faster than hotels
Its impact is pricing pressure, not occupancy collapse
Undifferentiated hotels feel the pressure most
Air Capacity: From Explosive Recovery to Structural Plateau
Air Capacity Growth Phases
2021–2022: Exceptional rebound (+87%, +39%)
2023–2024: Sharp slowdown
2025: First meaningful contraction (-5.2%)
2026–2028: Low single-digit growth (1–2%)
Interpretation
Air demand is no longer the growth engine, it is the baseline.
Cancún’s challenge is no longer attracting flights, but maximizing yield per seat.
Occupancy: Stable Because Supply and Demand Are Rebalancing
Despite:
Continuous hotel room growth
Sustained Airbnb expansion
Flattening air capacity growth
Occupancy stabilizes between 75–76%, signaling:
A mature destination
A structurally balanced market
Less volatility—but more competition
What This Means for Hotels (2026–2028)
What No Longer Works
Chasing occupancy at any cost
Discounting to offset Airbnb
Over-reliance on OTAs
What Wins
ADR discipline
Direct booking ecosystems
Brand and PR-led demand
Experience-based differentiation
The New KPI Hierarchy
RevPAR quality
Channel cost efficiency
Demand capture effectiveness
Occupancy (as an outcome, not a target)
Strategic Takeaway
“As hotel supply continues to grow, Airbnb expansion slows, and air capacity plateaus, Cancún enters a mature competitive phase where profitability is determined by strategy—not demand.”
Hotels will not lose because rooms are empty.They will lose because margins are mismanaged.
Final Message for Owners & Investors
Hotel rooms keep growing—year after year
Airbnb keeps expanding—but at a slower pace
Air demand stabilizes at high levels
Occupancy remains healthy
Margin protection becomes the defining success factor
Cancún is no longer a growth story.It is a performance and discipline story.
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